J.P. Morgan Analysts Expect Bizav Downturn after 2010

By Jennifer Harrington

AINalerts >> October 2008
Business Aviation

The business jet market is headed for a 15-percent downturn following a peak in deliveries in 2010, according to J.P. Morgan industry analysts. However, the downturn will be smaller than the previous market slowdown in 2001 and 2002, which resulted in a 31-percent decline. The effect of the financial crisis will be buffered by the industry backlog, one of the main reasons the downturn won’t be as severe as the earlier decline, according to Joseph Nadol, head of the J.P. Morgan Aerospace and Defense equity research group. “This industry has a massive backlog,” he said. “We’re going into this recession in a much better position than before.” In addition, deliveries are up 11 percent from 2003, and profits have increased 36 percent, he said. International business is expected to help keep the industry afloat, but Nadol said analysts are downgrading their predictions for China and India, though they expect business to increase in the Middle East, Eastern Europe (including Russia) and Latin America.

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