In a study titled “The Market for General Aviation/Utility Aircraft 2007-2016,” Forecast International said it anticipates a decline in corporate demand for twin turboprops in favor of the fractional ownership of turbofan-powered aircraft. Further, it expects this trend to accelerate as more sub-$4 million very light jets are delivered.
While VLJs can offer some speed advantage and can climb above weather at prices that are competitive with those of twin turboprops, Forecast International does not expect to see demand for twin turboprops end altogether. “These aircraft offer far more spacious cabins than the typical VLJ, and not all operators will be willing to trade space for speed,” the company noted.
Its forecast calls for deliveries of 4,660 turboprops worth $13.7 billion during the 10-year period. This market segment accounts for 17.2 percent of the predicted 22,477 piston and turboprop deliveries between 2007 and 2016, but still comprises 60 percent of the estimated $22.5 billion worth of billings. Business jet production was excluded from this study.