Analyst Predicts Modest Growth in Bizjet Deliveries

 - February 18, 2010, 11:39 AM

Aviation market consultant Brian Foley predicts that business jet deliveries will rise at “a steady 2.7 percent per year (compound annual growth rate) between now and 2019.” His forecast calls for manufacturers to deliver 8,900 business jets worth $170 billion in the 10-year period. According to Foley, about 48 percent of these airplanes will go to markets outside North America, compared to a historical 30 percent, which he termed “a major shift.” Countering other forecasters that have offered rosier predictions that rise on the graph like “hockey sticks” without a slowdown, Foley noted, “We can’t ignore the variable nature of this market, which historically has run in five- to six-year cycles.” Interestingly, his outlook also includes estimates for business jet fuel consumption by using an empirical method that looks at aircraft populations, utilization rates, fleet modernization and other factors. Foley is forecasting that 21 billion gallons will be consumed in the next decade. He expects the annual average to be 2.5 billion gallons in 2019, a 57-percent increase over the 1.6 billion gallons consumed by business jets last year.