Boeing projects the world’s airlines should see reasonable liquidity and pricing for new-aircraft delivery financing next year as jet builders accelerate production to meet demand, the manufacturer announced in London on Tuesday while issuing its fifth annual finance market forecast.
“We expect that despite economic and political challenges, global air travel will again demonstrate its remarkable resilience in 2013,” said Kostya Zolotusky, Boeing Capital’s managing director of capital markets development. “The industry’s global growth and airlines’ fleet replacements, accelerated by higher fuel prices, should keep demand stable and attract sufficient financing.
The encouraging report comes as higher costs for eligible airline borrowing using government export-credit financing take effect next year. Boeing forecasts the value of industry jetliner deliveries to total $104 billion next year.
Although the company projects that next year’s general financing conditions will remain “on par” with those of 2012, it also expects commercial banks—the world’s largest funding source—to strengthen their investment. It also expects capital markets to grow as a funding source for U.S. airlines and to expand their presence to non-U.S. airlines and increasingly influential leasing companies.
This year began amid concerns that Europe’s commercial banks would retreat from the market in response to the continent’s sovereign debt crisis. However, Zolotusky said those fears did not materialize and that Europe’s banks will remain active next year.
Boeing noted that regional commercial banks—in places such as China, Japan, Australia, the Middle East and North America—returned to or entered aircraft financing in 2012 and expect to remain in 2013.
Meanwhile, the company expects the higher costs and stricter terms for export credit borrowing next year will serve to reduce reliance on government-backed loan guarantees.