Some 13,030 business aircraft worth $325.6 billion (2014 dollars) will be delivered over the next 10 years, according to the Teal Group’s latest business aircraft forecast. This includes 9,361 traditional business jets worth $262.4 billion; 537 bizliners and regional jet conversions worth a combined $44.1 billion; and 3,132 business turboprops worth $19.1 billion.
Nearly two thirds of these aircraft by value are projected to be large-cabin and ultra-long-range jets, up from 50 percent before the 2009 market drop. Bombardier and Gulfstream will be the market leaders, with 32.4 percent and 31.5 percent, respectively, by value of deliveries, followed by Dassault (16.3 percent), Cessna (12.4 percent) and Embraer (6.4 percent).
“This change reflects our belief that the bottom half of the market will not recover faster than the top half, implying a permanent shift in favor of more expensive models,” the forecast notes. “This shift meant this industry faced an overcapacity problem in the bottom segment of the market. The five legacy players were joined by Embraer, with Honda arriving soon as a niche player. This dynamic forced Hawker out of the market.”
Teal’s forecast calls for “very little growth” this year, followed by a four-year recovery period starting next year with an average of 9-percent annual growth. At this projected growth rate, deliveries should reach the 2008 peak level in 2016, the firm said.