Second-quarter Bizjet Deliveries Won’t Be ‘Impressive’

 - July 15, 2014, 2:41 PM

Preliminary data suggests second-quarter results for business jet deliveries “will not be impressive,” according to J.P. Morgan North American Equity’s latest business jet monthly update. While its analysts note there are aircraft still missing from the database used to track deliveries, “Preliminary indications are that deliveries will fall short of estimates, with the possible exception of Gulfstream,” noted J.P. Morgan lead aerospace analyst Joseph Nadol III.

“Some of this reflects product transitions, such as the new Citation X+ and Challenger 350, both of which were certified late in the second quarter, so delivery misses are not necessarily a sign that demand is weakening,” he added. “However, the early data suggests that the second quarter will not be a milestone on the way to a recovery.”

Meanwhile, both inventory and prices of pre-owned business jets continue declining. June results were consistent with the long-running trends in the used market–inventories improved “modestly” but pricing is “persistently weak.” Inventory fell to 8.5 percent of in-production models last month, down 0.2 points from May and 0.7 points lower than in December. Average asking prices in June declined 2.2 percent month-over-month and fell 8 percent year-over-year.

Comments

With inventory starting to decrease at a decent clip, there's the possibility tha biz aircraft production could increase at some point down the road. Plus, with two major biz av shows coming up, there is the possibility of there being a potential order rebound during the second half of the year.

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