Rolls-Royce has released its 20-year forecast for the aero-engine business with predictions of up to $600 billion-worth of sales during the period.
The UK company stated it expects the industry will be called on to provide 114,000 jet engines “to meet the global demand for 51,000 new commercial aircraft, ranging from business jets to high-capacity airliners.”
In the Asia Pacific region, R-R believes the dramatic increase in demand for air travel will lead to an average 6.6 percent growth. Within that, China will grow by 8 percent a year, with demand expected to exceed 6,500 engines worth $65 billion over the next two decades. India is the next largest growth area with a likely requirement for “at least 1,600 engines.”
North America remains by far the biggest future market for single-aisle airliners and business jets, said R-R. The need to replace existing single-aisle aircraft will yield a market for around 20,000 engines for mainline and regional aircraft and a further 30,000 for business jets, together worth more than $160 billion.
Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States will also produce “significant” growth, according to R-R, with a 20-year demand for 3,000 engines.
The medium-capacity 250- to 350-seat twin-aisle sector will be the largest sector by value, with engine sales worth $230 billion, 40 percent of which will originate in Asia. “Strong and growing demand” will also come from the 400-plus seat sector, with potential sales worth $85 billion, much of this to power the growing global cargo fleet.