New Boeing analysis of future passenger- and cargo-capacity requirements confirms the trend toward ever-bigger jetliners, although its perception of global demand for large aircraft (400-plus seats) continues to oscillate. And the forecast sees only slight growth among regional jets, which have declined in number almost continually over the past 10 years. Overall, the U.S. manufacturer forecasts a $4,000 billion, 33,500-ship market for new commercial aircraft during 2011-2030. Some 40 percent of new-aircraft deliveries will be replacements.
Compared with last year’s equivalent document, the company’s 2011 Current Market Outlook (CMO), released here in Paris a few days ago, expects requirements for single-aisle and large equipment to increase by 10 percent and almost 14 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, Boeing predicts only a modest 3-percent increase in 20-year demand for both new regional jets and twin-aisle aircraft. The increasing average size of aircraft is demonstrated by Boeing analysis that predicts the combined single- and twin-aisle sectors’ market share growing from 81 percent last year to 92 percent in 2030.
Geographically, Boeing’s soothsayers forecast that the Asia/Pacific area will require the most new aircraft–11,450 valued at $1.5 trillion–in the coming 20 years. “The region will account for more than a third of [all] new deliveries, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth,” says the CMO.