Some 10,120 business jets worth $257 billion are expected to be delivered over the next 10 years (2012-2021), according to the third annual industry forecast published late last month by Zenith Jet, a Montreal-based business aviation services company.
The highly detailed “bottom up” forecast estimates compounded annual growth of 16 percent for new business jet shipments from now until 2016, the predicted peak year, with 1,318 delivered jets worth almost $33 billion. A trough is predicted in 2019, though at 851 aircraft worth $22.7 billion it will still be above post-2009 levels seen to date.
Unsurprisingly, large-cabin jets are expected to dominate in both units and value over the forecast period–3,528 and $161.9 billion, respectively. The forecast also includes 3,181 light jets worth $19.6 billion; 3,099 midsize jets worth $57 billion; and 312 “converted airliners” worth $18.5 billion.
Cessna would lead in volume of deliveries with 2,590 aircraft, or 25.6 percent of total expected shipments, while Bombardier would be the front-runner in terms of billings, at $71.494 billion, or 27.8 percent of the forecast revenues. The predicted shipment and revenue outlook at the other business jet OEMs is: Dassault, 1,147 jets, $46.365 billion; Gulfstream, 1,406 jets, $63.894 billion; Hawker Beechcraft, 577 jets, $8.456 billion; Embraer, 1,874 jets, $25.29 billion; and other, 540 jets, $17.684 billion.
In addition to its segment-level perspective of the market, the forecast provides insights into aircraft manufacturers’ product line strategies, new aircraft development and other key industry drivers. According to Zenith Jet, projected new aircraft could include a Bombardier Challenger 300 upgrade (said to be entering service next year) and a stretched derivative of this aircraft that would supercede the Challenger 605 when it is expected to enter service in 2016; Gulfstream G350, G450 and G550 replacements (estimated entry into service 2015 to 2017); and Dassault Falcon 900 replacement (EEIS 2016), 2000DX/LX replacement (EEIS 2017) and 9X (EEIS 2018).
The forecast even delves into market share for business jet avionics and powerplant suppliers. In the avionics arena, Honeywell is expected to be the leading supplier to business jet OEMs, with 46 percent market share by volume; followed by Rockwell Collins, 43 percent; Garmin, 7 percent; and other, 3 percent share. On the engine side, Pratt & Whitney wins in terms of volume at 34.4 percent; followed by Honeywell, 18.3 percent; Rolls-Royce, 14.8 percent; Williams International, 13.3 percent; other, 10.1 percent; GE, 5.1 percent; and Snecma, 4.9 percent.