Are Recent Bizav Forecasts Already Outdated?
Brian Foley Associates president Brian Foley today sent a critical message to the various companies and consultants that recently released business aviation forecasts: these “delivery forecasts [were] outdated the day they were published.” In his view, “New aircraft orders are poised to fall off a cliff. The record order books will not be as firm as OEMs would like to think, and [we] expect double-digit percentage order cancellations, depending on the manufacturer.” Due to order cancellations and deferrals, Foley believes worldwide new business aircraft deliveries will peak next year. (The Teal Group, which issued its business jet outlook in May, two weeks ago revised its forecast downward to also reflect a production peak next year.) “For the next few months, OEMs will provide earlier delivery slots to solid contract holders as others cancel or are unable to make progress payments,” Foley said. “This will keep deliveries strong only for the rest of this year and next.” He contends that the international market will not buoy business aircraft manufacturers during the downturn, predicting that international deliveries will soon peak before falling “to more historical levels.”