Teal Revises Business Jet Outlook Downward
Due to recent economic turmoil, The Teal Group earlier this month made the unusual move of revising its 18th annual Business Jet Overview, which was originally released in May. According to the aerospace consulting group, business jet deliveries are now expected to peak next year, a full year earlier than predicted in the May overview. The revised forecast still calls for the post-peak downturn to hit bottom in 2012, but instead of a “modest dip” Teal is now estimating a 25-percent market drop by value relative to the expected peak next year. Teal’s updated forecast calls for 13,457 business jets worth $212 billion to be delivered between 2008 and 2018, down from the original outlook, which predicted 14,289 jets worth $218 billion. These figures include only “traditional business jets,” not bizliners or regional jet variants such as the Embraer Legacy 600 and Bombardier Challenger 800. According to Teal vice president of analysis Richard Aboulafia, the post-market drop recovery is conservatively pegged to 10-percent compound annual growth rate. “Recovery could easily be at a faster pace, but then again, the market drop could be harsher. We’re kind of in uncharted waters,” he told AIN.