Consultant: Bizav Recovery Coming Sooner, Not Later
Sparta, N.J.-based business aviation consultancy Brian Foley Associates today said it believes the recovery of the business jet market will be sooner than previous estimates, despite “being nowhere near the bottom” of the current market cycle. “It’s hard to think recovery in this environment, but there’s reason to believe that we may come out of this a little sooner than widely expected,” noted company president Brian Foley. Historically, he said, the typical business jet cycle lasts for six years, but things can happen to change this. “The sharp economic fallout of 9/11 worked to accelerate the market fall and contract the expected down cycle from six to just over two years,” he pointed out. Foley said it’s “conceivable” the recent worldwide financial shocks will also expedite the market trough and compress this cycle to less than six years, “though at the expense of a rapid, pronounced, painful downturn and a longer U-shaped trough versus the usual V-shape.” According to Foley, elements for seeding the recovery have quietly begun, including lower fuel costs, shorter delivery times, stabilizing financial markets, lower aircraft pricing and the possibility of investment tax credits and accelerated depreciation bills.