More Production Cuts Coming at Bizav OEMs?
Despite an order backlog covering 5,000 aircraft, turbine business aircraft manufacturers could experience the steepest decline in production of any aerospace sector, according to a presentation by AeroStrategy at an aerospace materials conference in Pittsburgh last week. These manufacturers have already announced 20- to 30-percent production cutbacks this year, but AeroStrategy partner Kevin Michaels said this could yet grow to 40 percent. He predicts that annual business aviation deliveries will decline to about 1,300 aircraft by 2012 but climb to 2,000 aircraft a year by 2019. GAMA reported deliveries of 1,726 business aircraft in 2008. General aviation represented about 13 percent of aerospace materials consumption last year, the same as for military fixed-wing aircraft. Commercial jet production accounted for 68 percent of the 949 million pounds of raw materials purchased by the industry, while civil and military rotorcraft consumed the remaining 6 percent. Splitting the market by weight of material, AeroStrategy expects composites to increase their share from 4 percent last year to almost 7 percent by 2019, with most growth from carbon-fiber materials.