Teal: Business Aircraft Deliveries To Recover in 2012
The Teal Group’s recently released 19th annual Business Jet Overview indicates that business aircraft have been hit harder by the economic crisis than any other aerospace market. “After unprecedented growth, the market is falling at an unprecedented rate,” the report notes. “All meaningful indicators–utilization, prices, used aircraft availability and corporate profits–indicate a prolonged and painful downturn.” According to Teal, business jet deliveries are falling fast, and “we won’t see a recovery to the 2008 peak level for many years to come.” New business jet deliveries won’t start to recover until 2012, it said, with 2011 predicted to be a trough year in which deliveries are 40 percent below last year’s. The research company’s forecast then calls for a five-year recovery period with 10-percent growth per year starting in 2012. Using these assumptions, Teal estimates production of 12,768 business aircraft worth $195.9 billion (2009 dollars) over the next 10 years. This includes 9,300 business jets worth $153.9 billion; 575 bizliners worth $29.6 billion; and 2,893 business turboprops valued at $12.4 billion. For comparison, 10,568 business aircraft worth $159.2 billion (2009 dollars) were delivered over the past 10 years. “Even at the low point of our forecast, the business jet industry will be well over twice as large as it was in any year prior to 1997,” Teal concluded.