UBS: Bizjet Market ‘Less Worse, Not Better’
UBS Investment Research’s September business jet market index came in at 43, 16-percent higher than its previous survey in July and moved upward for the sixth consecutive month, “indicative of continued slowing in the rate of market deterioration.” However, UBS analyst David Strauss noted, the index continues to be “weighed down” by weak pricing and record-high inventory levels of pre-owned business jets, in addition to not yet crossing the threshold of 50 that indicates improvement in market conditions. On the other hand, UBS’s “straight up measure” of absolute business conditions has begun to show some incremental improvement, increasing 20 percent from July. Of the 168 business-aviation professionals UBS surveyed, 62 percent expect business conditions to improve over the next 12 months, 32 percent predict they will remain the same and only 6 percent foresee deterioration. Strauss said this month’s survey continues to reflect increasing customer interest due to price declines of 30 to 40 percent for pre-owned business jets, as well as “what appears to be improved financing availability.” Despite incremental buyer interest at these levels, “We think significant oversupply of high-quality used aircraft will continue to overhang new aircraft orders,” he concluded.