UBS Reaffirms Rising Bizjet Flight Activity Forecast
According to UBS Investment Research’s latest business jet update, flight activity in November was roughly unchanged from the same period in 2008, stemming the year-over-year declines seen in each of the previous 24 months. On a seasonally adjusted basis, cycles were roughly 1 percent higher from October and are now 18 percent above their March low, though still 23 percent below the 2007 peak. “While we think year-over-year growth can continue to accelerate into early 2010, we remain focused on sequential improvement over the near term,” UBS analyst David Strauss wrote. “For 2010, we continue to forecast double-digit year-over-year cycle growth in the first half, moderating in the second half to yield 8 to 10 percent growth for the full year.” While flight activity is recovering in all business jet classes, light jet flight activity–which had declined the most into the downturn–has shown the most significant improvement so far, up 21 percent from the March bottom. Midsize and large-cabin jet activity are both up about 15 percent, UBS said.