Foras Aims To Make Sense of Operational Risk Assessment
The Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (Foras) was created to quantitatively assess aviation risk factors with more than simple accident rates. As highlighted in the Flight Safety Foundation’s November 2013 AeroSafety World publication, the system breaks down risks into ever smaller elements to simplify analysis.
Co-developed by the Flight Safety Foundation, NASA, the U.S. Naval Research laboratory and Taiwan’s EVA Airways, Foras essentially created a mathematical model in a decision-tree format that synthesizes a variety of operational risk factors such as crew information, weather, management policy, airport issues, traffic flow and aircraft and other relevant operations.
Crew functionality, for example, is broken down into component parts that include inter-crew communications, pilot experience and crew fatigue levels. Reduced further, the risk factors in this example become experience pairing and communications proficiency.
Foras data is stored in the cloud and can be accessed only by companies sending encoded data to the server. EVA Airways plans to share the current version of the safety model with interested airlines to promote further development of the tool.