10-year forecast predicts strong bizjet deliveries

 - October 11, 2006, 6:08 AM

Some 7,417 business jets will be delivered between 2005 and 2014, peaking with the shipment of more than 800 jets in 2013, according to the Teal Group’s 15th annual business jet forecast. This projection is for about 35 percent more jets than the approximately 5,500 actually delivered between 1995 and 2004. The projected number of shipments for 2013 is a modest improvement on the number of deliveries in 2001 and 2002 (795 and 678, respectively), when delivery values reached their peak. Despite the increased number of deliveries, the Fairfax, Va. company does not expect delivery values to return to that peak until after 2014.

Of the 1,265 very light jets (VLJs) that Teal projects will be delivered between 2008 and 2014, nearly half (600) are the Citation Mustang. Teal doesn’t single out the other VLJ manufacturers because it does not know yet who they will be. The forecaster is, with the exception of Cessna, “skeptical of more than one or two manufacturers bringing VLJs to market.”

Gulfstream is forecast to have 25.3 percent of market share, in terms of value, followed by Bombardier with 23.5 percent. Cessna and Dassault will occupy the next tier, with 20.2 and 18.7 percent, respectively. Raytheon is predicted to account for 11.2 percent of the market. The remaining 1.1 percent belongs to the VLJ manufacturers that bring a product to market.

In the number of airplanes forecast to be delivered, Cessna leads the pack with the projected shipment of 2,798 jets (of which Mustangs are the largest segment). Bombardier is second, with a predicted 1,229 deliveries, followed by Raytheon Aircraft at 1,184 (including 249 Horizons). Gulfstream will deliver 905 jets and Dassault is expected to ship 635 new jets (320 of them the Falcon 7X) during the forecast period.

Teal also sees deliveries of 53 corporate versions of jetliners and 98 business-jet versions of regional jets between 2005 and 2014.

Teal believes the “biggest intrinsic market risk to our forecast is fractional provider demand…which is about 40 percent of the [OEMs’] much-vaunted backlog” and “if the fractional industry fails to make money, these orders could disappear.” Teal doesn’t believe this is likely, but it is “conceivable that fractional fleets could shrink.”