The slump in annual business jet deliveries that started three years ago will bottom out this year at about 470 shipments and begin a gradual increase to more than 820 in 2010, according to the 14th annual business jet overview and forecast from the Teal Group.
The Fairfax, Va. research company projects delivery of 6,413 business jets, including nearly 450 very light jets, from this year through 2013. An additional 152 bizliners will also be delivered over the next 10 years, the company said. The total value of all these airplanes will be $91.7 billion, by Teal’s reckoning.
Projecting that very light jets will make up only about 7 percent of total deliveries over the next decade, Teal admitted, “We’re air-taxi atheists and skeptical of more than one or two new manufacturers bringing any microjets to market.” But a supersonic business jet “is just a matter of time, for market and technical reasons,” Teal said.
In terms of total business-jet deliveries by each manufacturer over the 10-year period, here’s how Teal forecasts the numbers: Cessna 2,504; Bombardier 1,026; Raytheon 980; Gulfstream 839; Dassault 619; and very light jets 445.
A slightly more optimistic forecast can be found in Honeywell’s 12th annual business aviation outlook, released last October. The engine and avionics manufacturer predicted that from 2003 through 2013, airframers will deliver more than 7,700 business jets valued at $115 billion.
Although the Honeywell and Teal forecasts don’t agree exactly, the 10-year projected values of their respective guesses are in the same neck of the woods. Meanwhile, engine maker Rolls-Royce forecast 6,520 business jets will be delivered between 2003 and 2012, with the engines alone valued at $24 billion.