Market slowdown coming, says forecaster
Sparta, N.J.-based Brian Foley Associates, a consultant for investors entering into business aviation ventures, asserts that the outlooks of OEMs and other forecasters are overly optimistic. “The next delivery trough will be more pronounced than generally accepted and the recovery much longer,” noted president Brian Foley. “It’s easy for forecasters to get caught up in what has been an extraordinary double-digit growth period for the market…and straight-line that growth out into the future.”
According to Foley, the rapid growth of business aviation sales since 2002 “will be a tough act to follow.” He believes that the “hot international sales market” will not buoy the market through the next downturn, which he predicts will start in 2011. He expects that declining worldwide stock markets and a stronger dollar will cause international bizav sales to drop from 60 percent to the 40-percent range, while U.S. demand will remain sluggish. In Foley’s view, deliveries will fall 24 percent after the 2010 peak, compared with 30 percent during the last downturn. –C.T.