JPMorgan Sees Optimism for Bizjet Recovery
Citing a “significant overhang” of pre-owned jets available at attractive prices, last month’s business jet market report from JPMorgan said business jet demand remains “anemic” while new aircraft backlogs continue to decline. “We see potential for further rate cuts if orders do not pick up. However, there are reasons for optimism,” noted JPMorgan aerospace analyst Joseph Nadol III. “Global corporate profits were up an estimated 46 percent in 2010, and they have historically been correlated with bizjet deliveries, though there is a one- to two-year lag.” In addition, pre-owned inventories of in-production business jets are now 3 percentage points off the mid-2009 peak; as of late December, that number stood at 11.3 percent. If demand begins to pick up later this year, JPMorgan believes that business jet deliveries could meet its forecast for about 20-percent growth in 2012.