A new 20-year market forecast issued by Bombardier Aerospace in late June reflects less optimism for the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft segment than that conveyed by the company’s projections from a year earlier. Bombardier’s latest analysis, which includes outlooks for both turboprops and jets, projects deliveries of 12,800 airplanes worth some $630 billion over the next 20 years. Those figures reflect a decrease of 300 aircraft (2.3 percent) compared with the totals projected in the company’s 2011 forecast, caused primarily by expectations of lower global gross domestic product–by IHS Global Insight–and projections for a sharp increase in oil prices.
Specifically, Bombardier predicts deliveries of 300 airplanes in the 20- to 50-seat category, 5,600 airplanes worth $180 billion in the 60- to 99-seat category and 6,900 airplanes worth $449 billion in the 100- to 149-seat category.
Bombardier expects North America to lead demand for airplane deliveries over the forecast period. According to Bombardier, the U.S. and Canada will require 4,730 new aircraft; Chinese demand will call for deliveries of 2,220; and markets in Europe, including Russia and the CIS, will absorb 2,240.