Analyzing the GAMA 1Q10 aircraft delivery numbers

AINonline
May 11, 2010 - 4:47am

A couple observations from the GAMA 1Q general aviation aircraft delivery stats released yesterday. While business jet shipments are down 15 percent–to 350 deliveries in the quarter–from the year-ago period, manufacturers are shipping more of the higher-end jets (large cabin and bizliners), which caused billings to rise 7.1 percent to $4.64 billion.

This is benefiting companies such as Airbus, BBJ, Bombardier, and Dassault Falcon (biggest winners are Airbus and Dassault):

Airbus -- 1Q09: 2 units, $117 million; 1Q10: 5 units, $410 million

Boeing Business Jets -- 1Q09: 1 unit, $62.5 million; 1Q10: 2 units, $115 million

Bombardier -- 1Q09: 54 units, $1.37 billion; 1Q10: 47 units, $1.499 billion

Dassault -- 1Q09: 11 units, $439.81 million; 1Q10: 17 units, $735.7 million

Gulfstream is the only exception among large-cabin/bizliner manufacturers, but not by much:

Gulfstream -- 1Q09: 31 units (9 midsize, 22 large cabin), $1.17 billion; 28 units (8 midsize, 20 large cabin), $1.074 billion

And companies such as Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft are being penalized by this market shift:

Cessna -- 1Q09: 135 units (69 jets), $557.3 million; 1Q10: 80 units (31 jets), $192.83 million

Hawker Beechcraft -- 1Q09: 54 units (15 jets, 26 King Airs); 1Q10: 32 units (14 jets, 13 King Airs), $305.44 million

There's also been some erosion in the turboprop single sector: Cessna Caravan, 20 (1Q09) versus 19 (1Q10); Piaggio, 5 versus 1; Pilatus PC-12, 18 versus 12, Piper Meridian, 6 versus 2; and Socata TBM 850, 8 versus 7.

Embraer is still an unknown
, since Phenom production rates haven't stabilized quite yet. However, Lineage 600 deliveries inched up from 2 in 1Q09 to 3 in 1Q10. No Lineage 1000 deliveries were recorded in either quarter, so Embraer doesn't appear to be benefiting from the shift to more bizliner sales. Not sure exactly why this is, but it could be a production planning issue, lack of bizliner sales or any number of other things.

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