Bizjet Market Momentum Continues Positive Trend

 - December 8, 2009, 10:31 AM

UBS Investment Research’s latest monthly business jet market report, released yesterday, shows that business condition indicators have stabilized and in some cases are moving higher. Its November business jet market index came in at 45, some 5 percent higher than UBS’s prior survey and the seventh straight move higher. However, the index has not yet crossed the 50 threshold indicative of actual improvement in market conditions. In the meantime, UBS’s straight-up measure of absolute business conditions climbed higher, but still continues to reflect a depressed market. The monkey wrench to recovery continues to be the bloated pre-owned inventory. Despite a 1-percent decline in pre-owned business jet inventories last month (7 percent below the May peak), for-sale inventories are still 4 percent higher than one year ago and represent more than 16 percent of the in-service fleet, UBS said. Young aircraft inventories declined 2 percent last month and are now 14 percent below the April peak. UBS said that business jet flight activity in October was down 4 percent year-over-year, though it expects business jet activity to grow 8 to 10 percent next year. Another positive sign is UBS’s 12-month outlook score, which came in at 78, “reflecting a view that the market is at or near bottom.”