Bizav Analysts See Glimmer of Hope on Horizon

 - January 5, 2010, 10:19 AM

David Wyndham, v-p and co-owner of Conklin & de Decker, this week said he is seeing “glimmers of hope” for a business aviation industry still reeling from the economic downturn. Although expressing some caution, he noted, “The financial industry is headed back to stability and interest rates remain low, [and while] cash is still king, expect a very slow improvement in credit markets in 2010.” He called attention to signs of renewed life in the used aircraft market and an increase in flight hours, in particular among charter operators. Meanwhile, Brian Foley of Brian Foley Associates yesterday reaffirmed his earlier forecast of “measurable signs of recovery by mid-2010.” He cited a number of key positive indicators, among them a 2.2-percent climb in the U.S. GDP in the third quarter, a global stock market rebound and a lower dollar value. “With their strong local currencies and faster healing economies…non-U.S. buyers will deplete the most desirable pre-owned inventory, forcing still-recovering U.S. buyers to lead the new-aircraft recovery later.” With a down cycle compressed into a much shorter time frame of months rather than years, he said, “We’ve likely already embarked on what will hopefully be a full six-year upswing.”