Bizav Poised for a ‘Growth Spurt,’ Says Analyst

 - February 3, 2011, 8:29 AM

In his latest outlook, business aviation analyst Brian Foley sees an industry poised for a growth spurt, “albeit from an extremely depressed base.” He noted that many industry segments–including charter and fractional providers, fuel sales, maintenance and other service providers–are already reporting “measurable improvement.” Business aircraft manufacturers are also recovering, though more slowly. “Large-cabin jet manufacturers have experienced an upswing for some time,” Foley said, “and the beleaguered smaller aircraft segments will now follow, rounding out the rest of the recovery.” According to Foley, business jet deliveries are expected to grow by an average of 8 percent per year over the next five years. However, he predicts that shipments of large-cabin jets, which held up relatively well during the downturn, will grow at only a modest 5 percent per year. The “truly spectacular growth” in deliveries, possibly reaching 20 percent per-year growth, will be seen in the lighter-jet segments, which have taken a beating over the past two years. “This is positive news,” Foley said, “but it does not imply runaway growth so much as a bounce from unimaginable low delivery levels. The industry has literally nowhere else to go but up.”