Foley: Odds Still Favor Bizav Growth

 - October 10, 2011, 5:42 PM

Business aviation analyst Brian Foley believes that deliveries will trend modestly upward, though he cautioned that this “projection assumes that the economy and buyer confidence in general will gradually strengthen. Both are necessary catalysts for sales. If they don’t improve–and it probably will take both of them–then it must be considered that deliveries could stay flat into the foreseeable future.” He is standing by his forecast of 700 business jet deliveries this year, growing to a peak of more than 1,100 in 2016, then diminishing a bit. But “since it’s based on assumptions that might conceivably go another way, we’ve added a contingency prediction that’s more pessimistic.” In this alternative forecast model, deliveries would plateau at around 850 units per year. “But that would happen only if the economic doldrums continue, exacerbated by confidence-sapping threats of tax-law changes, restrictive aircraft financing, user fees, anti-bizjet rhetoric and such,” he said. “It would probably take a confluence of all these dire things acting simultaneously. Otherwise, the odds still favor the growth model.”