Zenith Jet has issued a mid-year update for its annual business aviation forecast. The Montreal-based business aviation services company forecasts delivery of 736 business jets this year, a number that, if accurate, would represent an increase over the 703 handed over last year and the first year-over-year improvement in deliveries since 2008. Zenith views this as the start of a five-year recovery run that will see deliveries grow at a compound average rate of 17 percent each year, with a peak of 1,392 deliveries anticipated in 2016. As a result, the company revised the number of private jet deliveries it had predicted for the next 10 years, from 10,120 earlier in the year to 10,377, representing approximately $220 billion in revenue. Those aircraft deliveries will spawn an additional $37 billion in revenue for engine manufacturers and $8 billion for avionics makers.
Over the life of the forecast, the category accounting for most aircraft deliveries will be the ultra-long-range segment at nearly 1,500 aircraft, testimony to the international market’s preferences, while light jet deliveries are estimated at 1,363, providing optimism for a rebound in this category as well.
In terms of geographic delivery distribution, according to the forecast, North America’s dominance will continue to erode to a ratio of 43 percent versus 57 percent international deliveries predicted over the next decade.