“Business jet deliveries rose 11 percent year-over-year in the first half of the year, prompting some commentary that a recovery is under way, but we view this conclusion as premature,” JPMorgan North American Research said in its latest monthly business jet outlook, released yesterday. “Tougher comparables and fewer Hawker deliveries post-bankruptcy should result in a second-half decline that holds deliveries flattish for the year.”
While this would be an improvement relative to the declines of the previous three years, it still leaves deliveries about 40 percent below the 2008 peak, JPMorgan analysts noted. “Ultimately, we do expect business jet demand to recover, and we forecast 13-percent delivery growth next year; however, the indicators we would most like to see improving are not yet there.”
These indicators include stagnant OEM backlogs; business aircraft utilization that is flat in the U.S. and lower in Europe; and an outlook for slowing corporate profit growth. Meanwhile, pre-owned inventory increased slightly last month, the research firm said, though it remains in the mid-10-percent range–inventory of in-production models rose 0.2 points to 10.6 percent. Average asking price, however, managed a 0.2 percentage-point gain last month, the first sequential increase since April and the second this year, according to JPMorgan.