Aircraft manufacturers will deliver an estimated 9,400 business jets worth $253 billion over the next 10 years, according to a forecast released late last week by Montreal-based business aviation services firm Zenith Jet.
The company projects that 757 business jets worth $21 billion will be shipped this year, with deliveries growing 17 percent annually over the remaining four-year recovery run through 2016, with a peak of 1,214 deliveries that year. Zenith Jet then forecasts a trough of 707 business jet deliveries in 2019, before growth resumes to some 1,114 deliveries in 2022, the last year in the outlook.
By aircraft category, the forecast calls for deliveries of 2,933 light jets worth $17.9 billion, 2,752 midsize jets ($52.1 billion) and 3,413 large-cabin jets ($165 billion), as well as 302 bizliners ($17.8 billion).
North American customers would account for 44 percent of the deliveries, followed by Asia-Pacific (18 percent), Europe (17 percent), South America (9 percent), Africa/Middle East (7 percent) and Russia/CIS (5 percent).
Bombardier and Gulfstream are expected to dominate in both deliveries and billings.
The report also speculates on several new yet-unannounced business jet models, including a stretched version of the Bombardier Challenger 300 that would replace the Challenger 605; Dassault Falcon 5X (large-cabin), 6X (super large) and 9X (ultra-long-range); Gulfstream G350, G450 and G550 replacements; and a new Cessna Citation XLS+.