Europe will remain the second-largest market for new business jets over the next decade, accounting for approximately 29 percent of delivery volume and 34 percent of billings, according to the latest 10-year forecast from Embraer. Since it will continue to be the largest market for business jets–predicted to take delivery of nearly half of the aircraft during the forecast period–the U.S. will dictate the speed of the recovery, noted Embraer Executive Jets president Ernest Edwards.
The Brazil-based aircraft manufacturer anticipates that 7,870 to 9,300 business jets–valued at $205 billion to $246 billion–will be shipped worldwide from now until the end of 2022, with Europe expected to absorb 2,180 to 2,700 aircraft worth between $75 billion and $82 billion in that period. (Embraer’s lower estimates assume “continued crisis,” while the higher figures suppose “slow growth.”)
Leading the predicted business jet expansion in Europe will be the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy–countries in this region that are expected to have the highest rates of real GDP growth from now until 2020. In Eastern Europe, Turkey and Poland–each forecast to have 4-percent annual GDP increases until 2020–will play assisting roles, according to Embraer. Meanwhile, the population of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) in Europe rose 1.1 percent from 2010 to 2011, and the region currently has the third-largest HNWI population in the world.
By aircraft category, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) will be most hungry for large-cabin jets, which are expected to comprise 22 percent of deliveries here, Embraer said. This would be followed by ultra-long-range and light jets (each tied at 16 percent), super-midsize jets (14 percent) and entry-level jets (10 percent). By value, ultra-long-range jets will dominate at 33 percent, followed by large-cabin jets (29 percent), super-midsize jets (11 percent) and bizliners (10 percent).