Embraer Issues 20-Year Market Outlook

 - July 8, 2012, 9:10 AM

A new market forecast released this week by Embraer suggests a projected need for 6,795 new aircraft in the 30- to 120-seat capacity segment over the next 20 years. Valued at $315 billion, the market would reflect a 5-percent annual increase in world demand for air transport in terms of revenue passenger-miles.

According to the Brazilian manufacturer, the “center of gravity” of the market will move eastward, most notably to Asia and, to some extent, southward to Latin America. By 2031, it projects Asia Pacific and China will become the largest airline markets in the world, accounting for 34 percent of global revenue passenger miles. Europe and North America will follow at 21 percent each, it added.

A 7.2-percent growth rate will make the Middle East the fastest growing market, said Embraer, closely followed by China and Latin America (7.0 percent each), Asia Pacific (5.8 percent), the CIS (5.6 percent) and Africa (5.3 percent). Of course, developed economies will grow slower; for example, North America will see a 3.2-percent rate of growth, while Europe is higher at 4.1 percent.

The strong pace of economic growth in emerging markets, the rise of an urban middle class, economic growth of small and mid-size cities, fuel prices, environmental concerns, increased airline competition and the continuous search for business efficiency all will affect the balance and magnitude of demand in the air transport industry, noted Embraer.

In dividing demand by size category, Embraer sees 405 deliveries in the 30- to 60-seat segment, 2,625 in the 61- to 90-seat sector and 3,765 in the 91- to 120-seat grouping. Meanwhile, North America’s share will account for a 32-percent share of deliveries, followed by Europe and the CIS (28 percent), China (15 percent), Latin America (11 percent), the Middle East and Africa (7 percent) and Asia Pacific (7 percent).