Jetnet IQ forecasts market upturn
Based on its most recent statistics and industry member surveys, data provider Jetnet (Booth no. 5099) continues to forecast an upturn in the market. “If you liked the industry over the last 10 or 20 years, we believe its going to get even better,” said Jetnet iQ director Roland Vincent at the company’s “State of the Market” briefing yesterday.
Over the next 10 years Jetnet iQ predicts a strong rebound in business aviation, with deliveries of 10,424 new business jets valued at $253 billion. For 2012, the company sees 699 bizjet deliveries, a total that will rise to 732 in 2013, an increase of 3.7 percent and 8.1 percent respectively over 2011’s tally. Primary drivers of the resurgence include a return to economic growth, the increasing international scope of business aviation flight operations and customers, and fleet renewal among existing customers, who have forestalled their purchases in the wake of the recent downturn. Indeed, in the company’s most recent industry survey, the second most cited reason for delaying an aircraft purchase, behind not needing another aircraft, was uncertainty about the economy/regulatory environment.
With improving economic conditions in the U.S. coupled with post-election “getting back to business” decisions necessary to run the country, Vincent believes that conditions are ripening for U.S. organizations to lead a resurgence in business aviation, although he cautions that more indicators such as utilization need to fall in alignment for a widescale recovery to gain traction. From the most recent of its Jetnet iQ quarterly industry surveys, 52 percent of the 507 owner and operator respondents believe the economy with respect to business aviation is past the low point in the current business cycle. That sentiment increases to 57 percent in North America, where 61 percent of the global turbine fleet is registered.
Over the next decade the largest volume of deliveries will be the light jet class, according to Jetnet, with 37 percent of the volume. Medium jets will account for a third of the deliveries over the next 10 years while large jets will total approximately 30 percent but account for 64 percent of the order values. The company expects that the U.S. and Canada will account for 49 percent of all business jet deliveries over the life of the forecast, which sees the worldwide business jet fleet growing to 26,793 aircraft by 2021. North America, which today accounts for approximately 63 percent of the world’s jet fleet, is expected to see that percentage shrink to 58 percent by the end of the forecast window.