Second-quarter business jet deliveries climbed by 30 percent in North America, but this gain was more than offset by deficits in the rest of the world, according to data released yesterday by UBS Global Research. Global business jet shipments, excluding very light jets, fell 1 percent during the quarter, dragged down by losses in other world regions: -50 percent in Asia-Pacific outside China/India, -39 percent in China/India, -23 percent in Western Europe and -21 percent in emerging countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
The business jet market in North America continues to recover, while in Western Europe it is “off the bottom,” UBS Global Research aerospace analysts noted yesterday. “Bizjet deliveries into North America have grown modestly in each of the last several years and we anticipate further improvement in [this region] driven by pent-up corporate replacement demand,” they said.
“We think a sustained recovery in business jet utilization is necessary to drive improvement in the new aircraft cycle,” UBS Investment Research aerospace analysts said in their latest business jet market update, released yesterday. “Without a recovery in utilization we still see the market as oversupplied.”
Talk of production “bubbles” again colored the discourse at the March 16 to 18 International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) Americas 2014 conference in San Diego, even while OEMs in attendance insisted that record backlogs fully justify their planned rate increases. Manufacturers highlighted a strong backdrop for aircraft demand fueled by aging replacement needs, a 20-seat increase in the capacity of narrowbodies since 2007, emerging-market long-term capacity requirements and the global expansion of low-cost carriers, according to a research note from Sterne Agee.
UBS Investment Research’s latest Business Jet Market Index dropped to 39 from 41 in May. The index measures “total value” in a survey of 131 “U.S. domestic and international broker/dealers, manufacturers, fractional providers, financiers and others,” according to UBS. The majority, 63 percent, are brokers/dealers.
The survey doesn’t assess absolute business conditions but measures changes in respondents’ views. The index is near a four-year low, “and well below the 50 mark that is indicative of sequential improvement.”