Boeing forecasts that air carriers in North America will take delivery of 7,530 new airplanes worth $760 billion over the next 20 years, the company said in a market outlook issued today in Montreal.
Taking retirements of airplanes into account, the North American fleet will grow from 6,610 airplanes today to about 9,330 airplanes by 2030, according to the outlook. Demand in the U.S. and Canada will center primarily on single-aisle jetliners, due to the need for replacing aging airplanes with new, more fuel-efficient ones. For the purposes of the Boeing forecast, the North American market consists of the U.S. and Canada. It includes Mexico in its forecast for Latin America.
“The North American commercial aviation market improved for a second consecutive year with passenger traffic growth at a modest 3 percent,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of marketing. “The region’s airline industry is poised for long-term, moderate growth. Airlines are expected to continue focusing on capacity discipline and improving financial performance.”
Boeing projects that single-aisle airplanes will grow to 73 percent of the total North American fleet by 2030. It attributes a majority of the growth in the single-aisle category to traffic traveling to and from economically dynamic regions in Central and South America.
Meanwhile, long-haul international traffic will continue to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 4.5 percent, said Boeing, resulting in a demand for an another 1,180 new twin-aisle airplanes.
Large airplanes (747-size and larger) will not see significant demand in North America, according to Boeing. It projects a market of only about 50 such airplanes during the period, or 1 percent total investment.