Analysts Warn of Rising Pre-owned Bizjet Inventories

By Chad Trautvetter

September 9, 2008
Business Aviation

Separate reports released in the past week by JPMorgan and UBS Investment Research indicate that pre-owned business jet inventories continued to increase last month, leading both financial analyst firms to warn that deliveries of new aircraft could fall as a result. UBS reported that used inventories last month rose 4 percent from July and 34 percent year-over-year, mainly driven by “young used inventories.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan painted the picture differently, saying that pre-owned inventories as a percentage of in-service aircraft rose to 9.8 percent, a 52-percent increase since January and the highest level recorded since 2003. According to UBS, “Still strong order activity would appear to indicate a business jet market that is holding up well.

However, we believe the market has come off from its peak and is likely to fall further. JPMorgan, however, offered a more pessimistic view: “Let there be no doubt the used market is rapidly falling apart, which should lead to a deteriorating market for new aircraft in short order.

It also noted that average asking prices declined by 2.3 percent year-over-year, influenced mainly by heavy jet prices, which fell 5.8 percent. Midsize jet prices, however, rose 5.4 percent in the past year.

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