Business aircraft activity in the U.S. has been climbing for the past 10 straight months and is set to continue this trend in the fourth quarter, according to aviation services company Argus. In fact, the company is predicting that flying in the quarter will rise 0.7 percent year-over-year, which would result in this year besting 2013 by 1.5 percent and making 2014 the “most robust” year for flight activity since 2008.
Bombardier’s just-released market forecast shows a significant drop in anticipated deliveries of business and commercial aircraft during the coming 20 years compared to last year’s forecast. The current forecast is for deliveries from 2014 to 2033.
Last year, Bombardier forecast deliveries of 24,000 business jets worth $650 billion from 2013 to 2032. The current forecast is for 22,000 business jets worth $617 billion. These numbers are for aircraft segments in which it Bombardier competes with its Learjet, Challenger and Global models.
Business aircraft manufacturers here at EBACE this week will be hoping to disprove suggestions that demand for new airplanes in Europe from current (or prospective) operators will decline. While Bombardier Aerospace foresees the region remaining second only to North America in its long-term requirements, equipment supplier Honeywell has detected less short-term enthusiasm. Globally, both companies’ market forecasts predict delivery of almost 10,000 new business aircraft in the next 10 years.
Embraer released its 2013 outlook yesterday, forecasting delivery of between 105 and 120 business jets this year, up from 99 last year. The forecast is for delivery of up to 90 light and 30 large-cabin business jets, compared with 77 and 22, respectively, last year. The company’s executive aviation segment is expected to contribute 25 percent of Embraer’s revenues this year.
Nearly 10,000 new business jets worth about $250 billion are predicted to be delivered between 2012 and 2022, according to Honeywell’s 21st annual business aviation outlook, released yesterday. The forecast reflects an approximate 9-percent increase in projected delivery value over last year’s 10-year prognostication, driven by pricing increases and a continued trend toward more demand for higher-priced larger business jets.
Susan Sheets Brogan, a business aviation industry veteran and former president of the National Aircraft Resale Association (NARA), has joined the JetNet iQ team as director of special programs. JetNet iQ is the company’s forecasting and advisory service for business aviation. On October 30 during the NBAA Convention, Brogan and the other JetNet iQ staff will give a briefing on the current state of the business aircraft market and a forecast for next year.
A new 20-year market forecast issued by Bombardier Aerospace in late June reflects less optimism for the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft segment than that conveyed by the company’s projections from a year earlier. Bombardier’s latest analysis, which includes outlooks for both turboprops and jets, projects deliveries of 12,800 airplanes worth some $630 billion over the next 20 years.
According to the Teal Group’s recently issued business aviation forecast, 13,879 aircraft worth $310.3 billion will be delivered over the next 10 years. This includes 10,249 business jets worth $249.5 billion, 568 bizliners worth $42.3 billion and 3,062 business turboprops worth $18.6 billion.
Industry market analyst Forecast International sees slow but steady improvement ahead for the business aviation industry in its new study released this week. Based on trends, such as increased business jet usage, stabilization in the used jet market, economic growth and strong corporate profits, the company believes the industry has already weathered the worst of the downturn.
According to JPMorgan North American Equity Research’s latest business jet monthly report, business jet deliveries will remain flat this year at about 549 aircraft, 47 percent below the peak in 2008, but this could rise to more than 650 next year.
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