Business aircraft manufacturers here at EBACE this week will be hoping to disprove suggestions that demand for new airplanes in Europe from current (or prospective) operators will decline. While Bombardier Aerospace foresees the region remaining second only to North America in its long-term requirements, equipment supplier Honeywell has detected less short-term enthusiasm. Globally, both companies’ market forecasts predict delivery of almost 10,000 new business aircraft in the next 10 years.
Embraer released its 2013 outlook yesterday, forecasting delivery of between 105 and 120 business jets this year, up from 99 last year. The forecast is for delivery of up to 90 light and 30 large-cabin business jets, compared with 77 and 22, respectively, last year. The company’s executive aviation segment is expected to contribute 25 percent of Embraer’s revenues this year.
Nearly 10,000 new business jets worth about $250 billion are predicted to be delivered between 2012 and 2022, according to Honeywell’s 21st annual business aviation outlook, released yesterday. The forecast reflects an approximate 9-percent increase in projected delivery value over last year’s 10-year prognostication, driven by pricing increases and a continued trend toward more demand for higher-priced larger business jets.
Susan Sheets Brogan, a business aviation industry veteran and former president of the National Aircraft Resale Association (NARA), has joined the JetNet iQ team as director of special programs. JetNet iQ is the company’s forecasting and advisory service for business aviation. On October 30 during the NBAA Convention, Brogan and the other JetNet iQ staff will give a briefing on the current state of the business aircraft market and a forecast for next year.
A new 20-year market forecast issued by Bombardier Aerospace in late June reflects less optimism for the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft segment than that conveyed by the company’s projections from a year earlier. Bombardier’s latest analysis, which includes outlooks for both turboprops and jets, projects deliveries of 12,800 airplanes worth some $630 billion over the next 20 years.
According to the Teal Group’s recently issued business aviation forecast, 13,879 aircraft worth $310.3 billion will be delivered over the next 10 years. This includes 10,249 business jets worth $249.5 billion, 568 bizliners worth $42.3 billion and 3,062 business turboprops worth $18.6 billion.
Industry market analyst Forecast International sees slow but steady improvement ahead for the business aviation industry in its new study released this week. Based on trends, such as increased business jet usage, stabilization in the used jet market, economic growth and strong corporate profits, the company believes the industry has already weathered the worst of the downturn.
According to JPMorgan North American Equity Research’s latest business jet monthly report, business jet deliveries will remain flat this year at about 549 aircraft, 47 percent below the peak in 2008, but this could rise to more than 650 next year.
Zenith Jet created a stir in the industry last year when it debuted its first “bottom up” business aviation forecast. And it didn’t pull any punches in its second annual bizjet forecast, a detailed 40-page report released last Wednesday that predicts 11,103 business jets worth $240 billion will be delivered over the next 10 years, with a peak in 2016 and trough in 2018.
The FAA is forecasting a recovery for general aviation, with business jets and light sport aircraft leading the way. After growing rapidly for most of the past decade, the demand for business jets has slowed over the past few years.
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