Honeywell’s annual market forecast for civil turbine-powered helicopters released Saturday is still predicting flat to slightly higher deliveries between 2009 and 2013 compared to the previous five-year period, but there are caveats aplenty.
Even taking into account the most recent upheaval on Wall Street, engine and avionics manufacturer Honeywell Aerospace’s just released 17th annual business aviation market forecast calls for deliveries of up to 17,000 new jets worth approximately $300 billion over the next decade. Based on operator responses, the results from this year’s survey show record deliveries will continue through next year, with a drop off in 2010.
Sparta, N.J.-based Brian Foley Associates, a consultant for investors entering into business aviation ventures, asserts that the outlooks of OEMs and other forecasters are overly optimistic. “The next delivery trough will be more pronounced than generally accepted and the recovery much longer,” noted president Brian Foley.
OK, so we all know that no one ever does anything more than talk about the weather. But the folks at the National Weather Service’s aviation branch are doing their best to make sure that when they do talk about the aviation climate, at least the dialogue is as accurate as possible.
Crystal-ball gazing is a major part of any trade show. Heli-Expo has traditionally been the stage for the presentation of the Rolls-Royce/Teal Group’s 10-year forecast of worldwide turbine-engine helicopter demand. Overall, this year’s forecast calls for a
5-percent increase over the sales rates predicted last year, foreseeing total turbine helicopter deliveries of 10,407 over the years 2003 to 2012.
Forecast International yesterday released a prediction that 14,978 business jets, worth some $192 billion, will be manufactured between 2007 and 2016. The Connecticut-based market research firm estimates that very light jets will account for 39 percent, or 5,783, of business jet deliveries during the time frame.
The Teal Group put it best in this year’s forecast when, echoing all other major predictors, it asked rhetorically, “Is it wrong to use these unusually good times as a forecasting base year?” Though issuing 10-year (and longer) forecasts might be akin to looking into a crystal ball, six major players have issued surprisingly similar numbers.
Two new worldwide weather map products–icing and turbulence forecasts–are now available from Jeppesen of Englewood, Colo. Both forecast maps use intuitive color scales to indicate forecast areas of light, moderate or severe activity. For the U.S., customers may view data for current conditions as well as forecast data at 3-, 6-, 12-, 18- and 24-hour intervals.
Honeywell Aerospace expects the world’s business jet manufacturers to set a new delivery record next year and establish a strong precedent for a 10-year forecast period in which the industry will ship more than 12,000 airplanes worth $195 billion.
Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 6.4 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared with 1.8 percent for piston-powered aircraft. Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the increase, expanding at an average annual rate of 10.2 percent over the next 12 years.
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