Bombardier Downgrades 20-year Business Jet Forecast

 - July 15, 2014, 3:05 PM
Bombardier Aerospace’s latest 20-year market forecast, which spans from 2014 to 2033, calls for deliveries of 22,000 business jets worth $617 billion. The company sees demand shifting to emerging markets and thus driving growth of the medium and large jet categories, with the most rapid growth in the large segment that includes its Global family. (Photo: Bombardier Aerospace)

Bombardier Aerospace’s latest 20-year market forecast, released on Sunday at the Farnborough Airshow, shows a significant drop in anticipated deliveries of business jets compared with its forecast from last year.

The current forecast, which spans from 2014 to 2033, calls for deliveries of 22,000 business jets worth $617 billion. Last year Bombardier predicted demand for 24,000 business jets worth $650 billion from 2013 to 2032. These numbers are for aircraft segments in which the manufacturer competes, with its Learjets, Challengers and Globals.

According to Bombardier, “Business aircraft orders are expected to remain challenging in 2014 across the industry, but projected to improve beginning in 2015.” The company sees demand shifting to emerging markets and thus driving growth of the medium and large jet categories, with the most rapid growth in the large segment.

The largest number of jets during the forecast period will be delivered to North American customers, followed by Europe and then China. The forecast sees deliveries of 950 jets in China from 2014 to 2023 and 1,275 from 2024 to 2033.

Comments

Although Bombadier decreased its 20 year forecast by two thousand, it is still pretty encouraging. This is especially the case when compared to the Teal Group's ten year forecast of a little over thirteen thousand, or JetNetIQ's ten year forecast of a little over nine thousand.

I see massive aircraft orders from airlines and business, at the same time I see massive pilot retirement numbers, and record low numbers of pilots entering training to replace them.  I can't help wondering if these predictions are rosier than the industry can really staff.  Regional airlines are already parking jets for lack of pilots, how will biz-av be unaffected?