Forecast International (Hall 3, Stand AB132), a Connecticut-based firm specializing in strategic planning and market assessments for the aerospace, defense and power systems industries, released market predictions for large jet transports and, separately, fighter aircraft this week at the Paris Air Show.
To produce its 15-year projection for transports, the company used its own Platinum Forecast System 4.0 analytic software to estimate that some 30,171 such airplanes valued at $4.91 trillion (2019 dollars) will be produced over the covered period. Annual production of such aircraft will increase from a projected 1,691 in 2019 to 2,127 in 2029, although what Forecast International calls “retrenchment” is predicted for the 2030 to 2033 timeframe.
Perhaps, unsurprisingly, Forecast International projects Airbus (47.7 percent) and Boeing (48.1 percent) will almost equally split the market for their products over the period, with production of aircraft like the COMAC C919 and the Irkut MC-21 filling out the remainder.
“The world airline industry is very healthy at present, having now enjoyed nine consecutive years of net profits,” Forecast International’s senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski explained in a statement released at the airshow. “Throughout this period, carriers have benefited from rising air traffic, and have generally maintained a measure of discipline in adding capacity to meet the increasing passenger demand.”
Meanwhile, the company estimates some 3,401 fighters worth $264.2 billion (2019 dollars) will be produced from this year through 2028. Forecast International adds that these numbers are 17.2 percent higher than for the previous 10 years, and mean some 499 additional aircraft will be produced during the period.
Worldwide fighter production over the 10 years covered by Forecast International’s new study, “The Market for Fighter Aircraft,” will peak at 371 aircraft for both 2021 and 2022, with follow-on production falling to 313 units by 2027. The most-produced fighter during the period will be the Lockheed Martin F-35, the company concluded.
“China and Russia have both developed stealth fighters to compete against the F-35, but the technical capabilities of these low-observable models are difficult to evaluate from the outside,” Forecast International’s senior aerospace analyst Douglas Royce commented. “In any case, Russian- and Chinese-built fighters only occasionally compete with Western-built fighters in the international market, so the impact of new Russian or Chinese fighters on Western manufacturers is usually small in any given year,” he concluded.