The light and midsize business jet segments appear to be mostly through the “lost decade.” But for large-cabin jets, which largely dodged this problem, headwinds could be in the forecast, according to Jon Raviv, the U.S. aerospace and defense senior equity analyst at Citi Research, who spoke last week at the Corporate Jet Investor Miami conference. Citi introduced its “lost decade” thesis in 2013, which said that excess aircraft production in the 2000s created a “shadow” pre-owned inventory that led to an anemic post-Great Recession recovery.
According to Raviv, the light and midsize jet markets have now “found a floor” since deliveries exceeded long-term trends in the 2000s, which “cannibalized” demand for new aircraft this decade. He is calling for flat deliveries in these segments over the next three years, averaging 444 aircraft annually.
“Large-cabin jets could be on the cusp of a lost decade, but new products such as the [Bombardier] Global 7000 and [Gulfstream] G500 and G600 can aid the escape,” he said. Deliveries in this segment exceeded long-term trends over much of the last 10 years, potentially creating excess inventory.
“Our math suggests large-cabin deliveries could fall as much as 10 percent for the remainder of this decade,” Raviv noted, projecting 178 average annual deliveries in this category over the next three years, below the peak of 302 in 2014 and the 219 delivered last year. Specifically, he is calling for 197 large-cabin jet shipments this year, followed by 177 and 159 in 2018 and 2019, respectively.