Turboprop singles such as the Pilatus PC-12 and Cessna Caravan “have remained at an industry-low depreciation rate,” according to Vref’s second annual 15-Year Residual Forecast for in-production aircraft. Both of these aircraft are expected to retain 70 percent of their value in 2034, the report says.
Most business jets are forecast to retain between 40 percent to about 50 percent of their value in 15 years, Vref said, but the Embraer Phenom 300E once again outperforms in this category, with 68 percent of its value expected in 2034.
“The data reinforces the latest opinions of Vref management that the market is balanced and showing little if any signs of slowing regardless of the continued tariffs with China and looming impeachment proceedings ahead of the 2020 election,” said Vref CEO Ken Dufour. “We are still cautiously optimistic about the new deliveries forecasted through 2020 and see no indicators as of yet that the manufacturers will miss their target numbers.”
In addition, he said, “We are seeing many aircraft owners of aging aircraft contemplating parting out versus a further investment of cash to meet 2020 compliance. This segment of the market has been weighing down averages for years and it will be good for the overall fleet values to see many of them leave the airspace for good.”