UBS: Bizjet Market Still Falling, but Bottom Nearing

 - March 19, 2009, 11:58 AM

UBS Market Research’s latest snapshot of the business jet market shows continued incremental deterioration in market conditions last month, although at a slower pace than in the November-to-January time frame. The firm’s measure of absolute business conditions dropped 9 percent to 2.4 on a scale of zero to 10, a third straight all-time low and well below five, indicating depressed market conditions “characterized by way too much supply, plummeting pricing and tight financing.” Regarding supply, pre-owned business jet listings moved 2 percent higher in February and are now 69 percent above prior year levels, with listings of young aircraft (less than 10 years old) more than doubling year-over-year. On a more positive note, UBS’s 12-month outlook score for the bizjet market continued to move higher, reflecting respondents’ view that the market could be near the bottom. However, business jet usage slid 28 percent in January over the previous month, and cycles are down 14 percent from the previous year, “which we expect will negatively impact the service businesses of the manufacturers and suppliers.” UBS has also lowered its business jet delivery forecast for 2009 to 2012 to account for continued weakness, still increasing pre-owned inventory and lower utilization. “Our forecast now reflects trough deliveries at 550 to 600 in 2010, just slightly above the prior cycle’s trough.”