NBAA Convention News

Forecaster: slight dip ahead in bizav market

 - October 6, 2008, 8:49 AM

Forecast International of Newtown, Conn., predicts a good outlook for business jet manufacturers through next year, after which production will suffer a “relatively shallow” three-year decline before climbing again in 2013 through 2017, by which time the manufacturers will be in “very good shape.”

The company expects the OEMs will turn out nearly 1,400 business jets this year and more than 1,600 next year before a dip that takes annual deliveries to 1,515 by 2012. By 2017, the end of the period studied, Forecast predicts the industry will crank out more than 1,700 business jets each year.

Overall, Forecast International predicts a total output from 2008 through 2017 of 15,936 business jets worth an estimated $223 billion. These figures include some 5,600 very light jets, “a very dynamic portion of the market,” noted the forecaster.

To place the relatively shallow decline from 2010 to 2012 in perspective, Forecast International said it expects it to be in the region of 7 percent, “thus paling in comparison with the double-digit production decline experienced in the industry’s last downturn in 2002 and 2003.”

Said Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, “Though the U.S. is still the largest single geographic market for business jets, non-U.S. customers now account for more than half of business jet sales. Robust sales in other parts of the world will help offset slowing sales in the saturated U.S. market.” Continued dissatisfaction with airline travel and the popularity of fractional ownership and jet card programs are also factors in business aviation’s favor, Forecast International noted.