Industry Consultant Sees Bizav Recovery Next Year

 - February 10, 2009, 10:47 AM

Sparta, N.J.-based Brian Foley Associates president Brian Foley foresees a recovery of the business aviation industry in the middle of next year, but not before unavoidable pain. “There are vulnerable companies that are young, leveraged or lack sufficient capital to ride out a prolonged downturn,” he said, adding that recent start-up air taxi, charter and fractional programs are likely to be “short lived.” However, Foley predicts that there will likely be some shakeups even at established, though weaker, business aviation companies. He lists single-product OEMs as being particularly at risk. Meanwhile, he said, FBOs, maintenance and other aviation service providers “will also find 2009 difficult,” especially in light of reports that “normal” business jet flight activity is down 30 to 40 percent. The good news is that he believes this activity decrease is only temporary until financial markets stabilize. “The manufacturing slowdown will quickly trickle down the supply chain, which will be one of the last segments to recover,” Foley noted. “Things will have settled by mid-2010 and the industry will once again be poised for growth, albeit slower than we’ve been accustomed to in the recent past.”