Forecast International Hints at Shift in Jet Market

 - November 19, 2009, 11:17 AM

In its latest business jet market prediction covering the next 10 years, Forecast International calls for worldwide production of 11,277 business jets worth an estimated $197 billion. According to the report, total production will decline for the next two years to a low of 716 aircraft in 2011 before beginning its rise through the end of the forecast period. While Gulfstream is predicted to take the top position among the OEMs in terms of order value, the report projects the top three bizjet builders in terms of unit production will be Cessna, Embraer and Bombardier, a clear indication that the Brazilian airframer’s rapid rise could be a growing threat to the Wichita manufacturers. “[Embraer is] a very aggressive new player in the bottom half of the market at exactly the moment when the traditional bottom-half players, especially Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft, are under tremendous pressure,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group. “It has the potential to get 15 or 20 percent of the marketplace; starting from zero, that’s pretty impressive.”