According to the Teal Group’s recently issued business aviation forecast, 13,879 aircraft worth $310.3 billion will be delivered over the next 10 years. This includes 10,249 business jets worth $249.5 billion, 568 bizliners worth $42.3 billion and 3,062 business turboprops worth $18.6 billion.
Teal’s forecast calls for 6 percent growth this year, 8 percent next year and a four-year recovery period with 12 percent annual growth starting in 2014. “Compared with prior market recoveries that have exhibited 15- to 17-percent compound annual growth rates, this is a conservative forecast,” said Teal vice president of analysis Richard Aboulafia. “Our conservatism is largely based on the likelihood of greater financial caution in the aftermath of the global credit crisis of 2008/2009.” With this growth rate, he added, “We won’t see a recovery to the 2008 peak deliveries level until 2015.”
Of the traditional business jets in the forecast, Teal expects 65 percent of them, by value, to be large-cabin, ultra-long-range or bizliner models. “This is up from 50 percent before the 2009 market drop,” Aboulafia noted. “This change reflects our belief that the bottom half of the market will not recover faster than the top half, implying a permanent shift in favor of more expensive models.”