“Indicators are marginally better, but momentum is insufficient for us to abandon our caution.” That is the tepid verdict of the analysts in J.P.Morgan’s latest business jet monthly update, released yesterday. The report notes that growth in U.S. business jet flight operations is currently the “key positive trend,” with the fifth consecutive year-over-year increase registered in August.
In addition, young (five years old or less) pre-owned business jet inventory fell by 0.4 percent last month to 6.3 percent and is now below the eight-year average, “indicating less direct competition for new aircraft from used ones.” Used aircraft pricing remains J.P.Morgan’s leading concern, “And while there was a modest uptick in September, the trend recently has been downward.” The data is looking “marginally better, but is not enough to convince us we are approaching escape velocity” for new jet demand.
Meanwhile, with the NBAA Convention just a week away, J.P.Morgan said it expects new product launches and insight on competitive positioning, rather than information on overall demand, to be revealed at the show. “Dassault’s Falcon 5X could be this year’s highest-profile launch,” the J.P.Morgan aerospace analysts said. “The launch of a Gulfstream G450 replacement (known as P42) is also possible at NBAA, but we view this as more likely to occur next year. Embraer plans an upgraded Lineage 1000, and we believe Cessna could continue its portfolio refresh as well.”