Citing the resiliency of the industry post-Covid, Boeing is predicting demand for more than 41,000 new aircraft valued at $7.2 trillion through 2041 in its latest Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) released just ahead of the 2022 Farnborough Airshow. This year’s forecast does not include aircraft deliveries to Russia due to the ongoing war-related sanctions, reducing global 20-year demand by about 1,500 airplanes, Boeing explained. “Currently, it’s not an addressable market for us,” said Darren Hulst, v-p of commercial marketing at Boeing.
Even so, Hulst noted this year’s view overall is stronger than that projected in the 2021 forecast, when the market remained depressed, and more in line with the 2019 CMO.
The strength of the latest forecast comes amid the rebound in international air travel and the “multi-speed” of the recovery. “There's accumulated savings, there's pent-up demand, and a strong labor market,” he said. While Hulst also pointed to uncertainties that could affect the market—including headwinds from inflation, supply constraints, and financial market volatility—he added that “the momentum of the recovery still tends to be the major driving force of demand for air travel.”
The aerospace giant believes that the global commercial fleet will grow by 80 percent through 2041 over pre-pandemic levels of 2019. About half of the new commercial airliners will replace aircraft already in service, which Boeing said will make the overall fleet more fuel efficient and sustainable.
The CMO projects that Asian markets will account for 40 percent of the demand, while Europe and North America each follow with a little more than 20 percent. The fleet in South Asia will lead global growth at 6.2 percent annually, the forecast suggests, adding that the region’s fleet will nearly quadruple from 700 aircraft in 2019 to more than 2,600 by 2041. India will help drive the growth, according to the CMO. The forecast projects Southeast Asia to nearly triple to 4,500 airplanes.
About 75 percent of deliveries over the forecast period will involve single-aisle aircraft, a forecast that matches last year’s outlook. Hulst pointed to “churn” in city pairs over the pandemic, with about 4,000 city pairs served by single-aisle aircraft before the pandemic now not served by those models. However, 3,500 new city pairs brings the total single-aisle city pair number to nearly 97 percent of pre-pandemic levels. “It demonstrates the versatility of airplanes and airlines in terms of adapting to the market,” he said.
On the widebody side, the network is back to close to 80 percent, he added.
The CMO projects that 30,880 of the deliveries will be single-aisles, 7,230 widebodies, 2,120 regional jets, and 940 freighters, for a total of 41,170 airplanes.
Meanwhile, Boeing Global Services sees a $3.6 trillion market in its support segments over the same time period, citing demand for maintenance, modifications, converted freighters, digital solutions, and ramped-up training.
“Despite the unprecedented disruption over the past two years, the aviation industry has shown incredible resilience in adapting to the challenge,” said Ihssane Mounir, Boeing senior v-p of global commercial sales and marketing.