Flight shaming will have a greater effect on the business jet industry this year, while demand for such aircraft in emerging markets will be on the rise, according to business aircraft consultant Brian Foley’s latest industry prognostications. “There are developments that would suggest that 2020 will shape up much differently than 2019,” Foley said.
He believes private and corporate fliers will seek to avoid judgment and public humiliation of Flygskam, or flight shaming, by paying into third-party carbon offset programs or by exiting aircraft ownership and opting instead for charter or fractional flying as the movement gains steam. “The latter is not at all helpful to new business jet sales, which have been stubbornly anemic for the past decade,” Foley added.
But better economic growth prospects overseas, attractive stock valuations in emerging markets, and expectations for a successful Brexit should stimulate “a decent uptick in offshore business jet sales,” Foley explained. “This comes at a good time as the economic cycle of the largest purveyor of jets, the U.S., matures and buyers remain skittish.”
Foley also believes that there are too many business jets chasing too few buyers: 41 new models from seven manufacturers competing for industry-wide unit sales of 700. That could result in some casualties in 2020, including the Learjet 75. “[Bombardier] surely has been evaluating its Learjet division, which only delivered nine units through the third quarter of 2019 and is the smallest contributor to the company’s overall business jet sale revenues,” he said.